• With some two.vi billion people effectually the earth in some kind of lockdown, nosotros are conducting arguably the largest psychological experiment ever;
  • This will issue in a secondary epidemic of burnouts and stress-related absenteeism in the latter half of 2020;
  • Taking action now can mitigate the toxic effects of COVID-nineteen lockdowns.

In the mid-1990s, French republic was i of the get-go countries in the world to adopt a revolutionary approach for the aftermath of terrorist attacks and disasters. In improver to a medical field infirmary or triage postal service, the French crisis response includes setting up a psychological field unit, a Cellule d'Urgence Médico-Psychologique or CUMPS.

In that 2d triage post, victims and witnesses who were non physically harmed receive psychological help and are checked for signs of needing further post-traumatic treatment. In those situations, the World Wellness Arrangement recommends protocols similar R-TEP (Recent Traumatic Episode Protocol) and Thousand-TEP (Group Traumatic Episode Protocol).

Since France led the way more than 20 years agone, international playbooks for disaster response increasingly call for this two-tent approach: one for the wounded and i to treat the invisible, psychological wounds of trauma.

In treating the COVID-19 pandemic, the globe is scrambling to build plenty tents to treat those infected with a deadly, highly contagious virus. In New York, we see literal field hospitals in the middle of Central Park.

But we're not setting up the second tent for psychological help and we will pay the price within three to six months after the end of this unprecedented lockdown, at a time when we will need all able bodies to aid the world economy recover.

The mental price of quarantine and lockdown

Currently, an estimated 2.6 billion people – i-3rd of the world's population – is living under some kind of lockdown or quarantine. This is arguably the largest psychological experiment ever conducted.

Estimated size of lockdowns around the world

Estimated size of lockdowns around the earth

Image: Statista

Unfortunately, nosotros already accept a good thought of its results. In late February 2020, right before European countries mandated diverse forms of lockdowns, The Lancet published a review of 24 studies documenting the psychological impact of quarantine (the "brake of motion of people who have potentially been exposed to a contagious disease"). The findings offer a glimpse of what is brewing in hundreds of millions of households around the world.

In short, and peradventure unsurprisingly, people who are quarantined are very likely to develop a broad range of symptoms of psychological stress and disorder, including depression mood, insomnia, stress, feet, anger, irritability, emotional exhaustion, depression and post-traumatic stress symptoms. Low mood and irritability specifically stand out as being very common, the study notes.

In China, these expected mental health effects are already existence reported in the first research papers virtually the lockdown.

In cases where parents were quarantined with children, the mental wellness price became even steeper. In one study, no less than 28% of quarantined parents warranted a diagnosis of "trauma-related mental health disorder".

Among quarantined infirmary staff, almost 10% reported "high depressive symptoms" up to three years after existence quarantined. Some other study reporting on the long-term effects of SARS quarantine among healthcare workers found a long-term risk for alcohol abuse, self-medication and long-lasting "avoidance" behaviour. This means that years after being quarantined, some infirmary workers still avoid being in close contact with patients by simply not showing up for work.

Reasons for stress abound in lockdown: there is risk of infection, fear of becoming sick or of losing loved ones, too equally the prospect of financial hardship. All these, and many more, are nowadays in this current pandemic.

The second epidemic and setting up the second tent online

We can already encounter a abrupt increase in absenteeism in countries in lockdown. People are afraid to catch COVID-19 on the work floor and avoid work. Nosotros will come across a second moving ridge of this in three to six months. Merely when we need all able bodies to repair the economic system, we tin can await a sharp spike in absence and burnout.

Nosotros know this from many examples, ranging from absenteeism in military units after deployment in take a chance areas, companies that were close to Footing Zero in ix/eleven and medical professionals in regions with outbreaks of Ebola, SARS and MERS.

Correct before the lockdown, nosotros conducted a benchmark survey amidst a representative sample of the Belgian population. In that survey, we saw that 32% of the population could exist classified as highly resilient ("greenish"). Only xv% of the population indicated toxic levels of stress ("red").

How stress under lockdown is affecting Belgians

How stress under lockdown is affecting Belgians

In our almost recent survey after two weeks of lockdown, the light-green portion has shrunk to 25% of the population. The "reddish" part of the population has increased past 10 per centum points to fully 25% of the population.

These are the people at loftier risk for long-term absenteeism from work due to illness and burnout. Even if they stay at work, research from Eurofound reports a loss of productivity of 35% for these workers.

In full general, we know at-take chances groups for long-term mental health issues will be the healthcare workers who are on the frontline, immature people under 30 and children, the elderly and those in precarious situations, for instance, attributable to mental illness, disability and poverty.

All this should surprise no one; insights on the long-term damage of disasters have been accepted in the field of trauma psychology for decades.

The phases of disaster response

The phases of disaster response

Image: When disaster strikes, Beverly Raphael, 1986

Only while the insights are not new, the sheer scale of these lockdowns is. This fourth dimension, footing zero is not a quarantined village or town or region; a third of the global population is dealing with these intense stressors. We need to human activity now to mitigate the toxic furnishings of this lockdown.

What is the World Economic Forum doing nearly the coronavirus outbreak?

Responding to the COVID-nineteen pandemic requires global cooperation among governments, international organizations and the business community, which is at the centre of the World Economic Forum's mission equally the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation.

Since its launch on eleven March, the Forum'south COVID Action Platform has brought together ane,667 stakeholders from i,106 businesses and organizations to mitigate the hazard and bear on of the unprecedented global health emergency that is COVID-19.

The platform is created with the support of the World Health System and is open to all businesses and industry groups, as well as other stakeholders, aiming to integrate and inform joint action.

Equally an organization, the Forum has a runway record of supporting efforts to incorporate epidemics. In 2017, at our Annual Meeting, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) was launched – bringing together experts from government, business, health, academia and ceremonious society to accelerate the development of vaccines. CEPI is currently supporting the race to develop a vaccine against this strand of the coronavirus.

What governments and NGOs can and should do today

There is broad consensus among academics about the psychological care post-obit disasters and major incidents. Here are a few rules of thumb:

  • Brand sure self-help interventions are in place that can address the needs of large affected populations;
  • Educate people about the expected psychological impact and reactions to trauma if they are interested in receiving information technology. Make sure people understand that a psychological reaction is normal;
  • Launch a specific website to accost psychosocial issues;
  • Make sure that people with astute issues can find the help that they need

In Kingdom of belgium, we recently launched Anybody OK, an online tool that tries to offering help to the affected population. Using existing protocols and interventions, we launched our digital self-assist tool in as footling every bit two weeks.

When it comes to offering psychological support to their populations, virtually countries are late to react, every bit they were to the novel coronavirus. Better late than never.

This article is part of the COVID Action Platform for Media, a coalition of over 20 media from around the world. The Platform aims to create meaningful and constructive content on the COVID pandemic, and syndicates it through its media partners. Interested? Sign up here